$14.00M
Approved budget
$15.12M
Current expected annual cost · 360 claims × $42K expected defense cost
—
modeled
—
Unresolved gap after modeled actions
Why the plan changed
Variance decomposed from claim-level data; volume forecast from ClaimCenter| Driver | Contribution | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Original plan · 300 claims × $40,000 | $12.00M | |
| Volume · 60 extra claims × $40,000 Claim arrivals up 20%; outside anyone's control in legal | +$2.40M | |
| Case mix · 360 × $1,200 More litigated soft-tissue claims in QLD | +$432K | |
| Rates · 360 × $500 Rate card increases, 4.1% average | +$180K | |
| Staffing · 360 × $300 Partner share drift at Firms D and E | +$108K | |
| Expected annual cost | $15.12M |
Management implication. Volume explains $2.4M of the $3.1M; rates and staffing together explain under $300K. Across-the-board rate cuts do not address the driver. Replan capacity and scope for the higher claim volume, and fund the remainder.
Model available actions
Overlaps removed before totals · tick to test$120K
$240K
$310K
$90K
Selected actions—Overlapping benefit removed—Net modeled reduction—Unresolved gap to fund or accept—
These are assumptions to test. Provider capacity, matter quality and exceptions can change the result; each action becomes a decision record with an owner, a baseline and a follow-up date once saved.
Forecast range before actions: $13.8M–$17.4M (p10–p90 from claim-arrival and severity simulation; not a point estimate)