Budget trajectory by phase
Spent vs budget vs comparable medianSpent to date$31,400 of $48,000 · 33% of reservePredicted final cost (defend to resolution)$55,400 · p(overrun) 0.68Comparable median final cost$38,200Main driverspartner share 41% (was 24%); 2 unplanned depositions; plaintiff firm with 1.3× cycle time
Settle vs defend
Recommendation confidence 0.72Defend to resolution
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Settle within 60 days
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Expected saving from the settlement path: —. Three similar claims this quarter settled after the same signal at an average saving of $21K.
What changed since the last gate
- Partner share rose to 41% in August; a staffing covenant is drafted.
- Two depositions added beyond the agreed plan (not pre-approved).
- Opposing counsel changed to Harbour Legal, whose matters run 1.3× longer.
Comparable unit of work
UnitMotor BI · soft tissue · L300 discoveryMatched onVenue (QLD), reserve band $60–120K, suit filed, plaintiff firm tierExcludedFraud indicators, catastrophic injury, appealsCohortn=186 · through 30 SepMatched median$9,800 for this phaseCurrent request$15,900 (+$6,100)
Question for the firm first. What extra volume or complexity explains the difference? Request scope, staffing and approved exceptions before challenging the fee.
Reserve read-across
Expense (ALAE) reserve on file: $40,000. Predicted total defense cost $55,400 if defended. Proposed expense reserve change: +$15,400, or no change if settlement authority is granted. Posts to ClaimCenter on approval. Accruals and reserves.
Decision log
Every option taken here is recorded with the forecast it was based on, so the model can be scored on realized outcomes. Gate decisions this quarter: 112 · settled 61 · re-budgeted 29 · re-staffed 14 · defended as planned 8.