$640.0M
Approved budget
$652.6M
Current expected annual cost · 3,420 matters × $191K expected cost
—
modeled
—
Unresolved gap after modeled actions
Why the plan changed
Variance decomposed from matter-level data; volume forecast from Legal Tracker| Driver | Contribution | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Original plan · 3,000 matters × $200,000 | $600.0M | |
| Regulatory matter volume · 46 extra inquiries × $200K Conduct and prudential inquiries up 18% | +$9.2M | |
| Deal volume · 6 extra deals × $1.4M Corporate development pipeline | +$8.4M | |
| Rates · 3,420 × $2,900 Rate card increases, 8.6% at top-20 firms | +$9.9M | |
| Staffing leverage · 3,420 × $1,800 Partner share drift at Firms K and P | +$6.2M | |
| Settlements and AFAs Early resolution on 12 matters | −$21.1M | |
| Expected annual cost | $652.6M |
Management implication. Matter and deal volume explain $17.6M; rates and leverage explain $16.1M, which is where negotiation and covenants work. Rate holds and leverage covenants at the top-20 firms address half the gap; the rest is volume to fund.
Model available actions
Overlaps removed before totals · tick to test$3.1M
$2.4M
$1.8M
$4.2M
Selected actions—Overlapping benefit removed—Net modeled reduction—Unresolved gap to fund or accept—
These are assumptions to test. Provider capacity, matter quality and exceptions can change the result; each action becomes a decision record with an owner, a baseline and a follow-up date once saved.
Forecast range before actions: $628M–$684M (p10–p90 from matter-arrival and deal-pipeline simulation; not a point estimate)