$48.6M
Transaction legal spend YTD · 14 deals
$47.6M
Modeled pipeline forecast · $1.0M below current
$2.4M
Expected saving from materiality-based diligence scoping
38%
Share of deal fees at partner level · comparable 29%
M&A pipeline
Comparable set: share deals, regulated target, $100–250M EV, 3+ jurisdictions, last 36 months (n=64). Forecasts come from phase burn and deal-timeline models, not from firm estimates alone.| Deal | Phase | EV | Budget | Spent | Forecast | Firm | Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Project Northwind Share deal · regulated target · 3 jurisdictions | Diligence | $180M | $1.9M | $0.76M | $2.3M | Firm K | Scope decision due |
| Project Atlas Asset carve-out · US | SPA negotiation | $420M | $3.4M | $2.1M | $3.3M | Firm J | On plan |
| Project Harbour Minority stake · fintech | Signing to close | $95M | $0.9M | $0.84M | $1.1M | Firm L | p(overrun) 0.71 |
| Project Cedar Branch portfolio sale | Pre-LOI | $240M | $0.3M | $0.11M | $0.3M | Firm M | Staged |
| Project Juniper Payments JV · regulatory approvals in 2 markets | Regulatory | $310M | $2.6M | $1.4M | $2.9M | Firm K | Regulatory phase +12% |
| Other live deals (9) | $1.1B | $9.8M | $5.2M | $9.6M | On plan |
Model a decision; protect the deadline
Scoping is a risk decision, not a fee decision. Materiality thresholds, sampling rates and carve-outs are set with corporate development and risk, and recorded against the deal. A missed change-of-control clause costs more than the diligence saved.
Corporate development sign-offPendingGroup risk sign-offPendingScope letters sentNoneNext gateNorthwind · 9 Oct
Value categories kept distinct
Diligence scoping is avoided future spend (recognized at close); firm reallocation is expected cost difference; staged pre-LOI work is deferred capacity; none is an invoice reduction.
Firm value by deal type
Regulated-target share deals: Firm J averages $0.86M per $100M EV; Firm K $1.14M at the same partner share and no difference in post-close claims. Routing the next cohort to Firms J and N saves an estimated $3.1M.
Fixed-fee opportunity
Regulatory change-of-control filings: 86 units, coefficient of variation 0.24. Suggested fixed fee $42K per jurisdiction (p60) with a complexity uplift for second-request markets.